Kelly Criterion Calculator In Excel

Step 1

Open a new Excel spreadsheet and create the following headers: Betting Bankroll, Kelly Staking Fraction, 1 (outcome 1), 2 (outcome 2), Odds 1, Odds 2, Probability of 1, Probability of 2, Kelly Stake 1 and  Kelly Stake 2

Then click the centre align button to ensure all data is displayed in the centre of their cells.

This is what you get:

How To Calculate The Kelly Criterion Step 1

Step 2

Enter both your current betting bankroll and your preferred Kelly staking fraction into the cells accordingly.

How To Calculate The Kelly Criterion Step 2

Step 3

Next enter the two possible outcomes for this market and the odds on offer for each outcome. In this example we are betting on the Asian Handicap in a Premier League match between Manchester City and Swansea.

How To Calculate The Kelly Criterion Step 3

Step 4

Next enter your assessed probability for each outcome occurring.

How To Calculate The Kelly Criterion Step 4

Step 5

Now we get down to the serious business. In cell I2 add the following formula:

=((((E2*G2)-1)/(E2-1))*A2)*B2

In this case…

E2 = odds for outcome 1

G2 = your assessed probability for outcome 1

A2 = your current betting bankroll

B2 = your preferred Kelly staking fraction

How To Calculate The Kelly Criterion Step 5

And in cell j2 add the following formula:

=((((F2*H2)-1)/(F2-1))*A2)*B2

In this case…

F2 = odds for outcome 2

H2 = your assessed probability for outcome 2

A2 = your current betting bankroll

B2 = your preferred Kelly staking fraction

How To Calculate The Kelly Criterion Step 5b

You’re done. The spreadsheet will now tell you how much to bet on any given market. (When the suggested Kelly Stake is less than 0, it means no bet is advised.)

How To Calculate The Kelly Criterion Step 6

In our example, the calculator is recommending we bet £59.56 of our £1000 bankroll on Manchester City -1 goal at odds of 1.85.

 

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